Commercial ZNE Market Characterization
Client: PG&E, on behalf of SCE, SDGE, and SoCal Gas
Project Dates: November 2019
Project Team: Resource Refocus, TRC, Opinion Dynamics, NBI, NORESCO
project summary
map of ZNE buildings in California
The purpose of this study was to support the Statewide ZNE goal by identifying drivers and barriers to the commercial ZNE and ultra-efficient building market, identifying lessons learned from current ZNE and ultra-efficient buildings, estimating the absolute and relative market size of the ZNE and ultra-efficient buildings market, and estimating energy use intensity (EUI) of ZNE and ultra-efficient buildings compared to code built buildings. Based on results, the goal of the study was to assess opportunities to further understand and develop the ZNE and ultra-efficient market and provide analysis and recommendations.
As an overview of data collection, the study reviewed existing literature related to ZNE, conducted interviews with 80 commercial building market actors – most of whom had experience with ZNE or ultra-efficient buildings, interviewed six staff from jurisdictions with reach codes, and compared modeled and measured EUI of ZNE and ultra-efficient buildings with code compliant buildings – both those built to new construction and to vintage code requirements.
breakdown of ZNE building types in California
The results of this study indicate a mix of encouraging findings and challenges for meeting the California statewide ZNE goals. The study found high excitement about ZNE from most market actors interviewed, almost all of whom had experience and success with ZNE or ultra-efficient buildings. However, only 1% of market actors responded to interview requests, perhaps indicating a lack of interest, knowledge, or prioritization for ZNE within the broad market. While there is a growing California ZNE and ultra-efficient market with strong diversity in climates, size, types, and ownership, they comprise approximately 0.4% of new construction and 0.1% of existing buildings. When considering only ZNE Performance buildings (i.e., those with metered results supporting the ZNC claim), the penetration is even lower. Thus, ZNE remains in the innovator stage and there are various outstanding issues related to feasibility and market adoption to achieve the 2030 goals. Several of these challenges are expected, given cost effectiveness constraints governing new Title 24 requirements, reach codes, and IOU programs. The findings show how market momentum combined with regulatory pushes are moving buildings towards ZNE, but at a slow pace.
Key Findings
ZNE is technically feasible for many building types using efficiency and onsite solar PV.
Existing buildings have been able to achieve ZNE, or near ZNE, through aggressive retrofits and onsite solar PV.
A significant portion of the market has an interest in exceeding code requirements.
Non-energy benefits include improved occupant health, comfort, and indoor air quality; improved marketability; and reduced maintenance.
Most market actors interviewed believe that many barriers can be solved through education.
Several jurisdictions in CA have adopted reach codes or green ordinances that require buildings to exceed energy code requirements.
Challenges
Urban high-rise projects with a low rooftop area to floor area ratio pose a challenge due to reduced rooftop and onsite solar PV opportunities.
GHG emissions from existing buildings dwarf those of new construction.
The general market is not yet embracing ZNE.
Barriers to ZNE include insufficient budget, inexperience, inability to place enough renewables onsite, lack of coordination, high plug loads and unpredictable occupant behavior, energy modeling challenges, and undervalued commissioning.
Most reach codes limit their scope to new construction buildings and exclude retrofits.